Play-In Preview Part I
April 12, 2022
Tuesday night the NBA postseason will get underway with another installment of the play-in tournament. If you’re unfamiliar with the specifics, or you just need a refresher, here’s what you need to know:
The 7 seed in each conference will host the 8 seed in each conference in a one game playoff. The winner of this game will advance to the playoffs as the 7 seed in their respective conference.
The 9 seed in each conference will host the 10 seed in each conference in a one game playoff. The winner of this game will advance to the play-in final.
The loser of the 7/8 game will host the winner of the 9/10 game in each conference in a one game playoff. The winner of this game will advance to the playoffs as the 8 seed in their respective conference.
The play-in teams from the Eastern Conference are:
7. Brooklyn Nets
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
9. Atlanta Hawks
10. Charlotte Hornets
So Tuesday night the Nets will host the Cavs for the 7 seed in the first play-in game. The winner will go on the road to take on the 2 seed in the first round of the playoffs, our very own Boston Celtics. On Wednesday night, the Hawks will host the Hornets. And the winner of that game will travel to take on the loser of the Nets/Cavs game on Friday night for the 8 seed.
In the Western Conference here’s what we’re looking at:
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Los Angeles Clippers
9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. San Antonio Spurs
So this means that on Tuesday night the Timberwolves will host the Clippers for the 7 seed in the west. The winner will go on the road to take on the 2 seed in the first round of the playoffs, the upstart Memphis Grizzlies. Then on Wednesday night, the Pelicans will host the Spurs. The winner of this matchup will travel to face the loser of the Timberwolves/Clippers game on Friday night for the 8 seed.
So as you can see it’s all pretty straightforward. Well if you’re still with me and you don’t have too much of a headache let’s break down these games, figure out who the Celtics first round opponent will be, and how the rest of the playoffs will shape up. By the end of Friday we’ll have our entire bracket 1-8 in each conference while all matchups will be set and ready to begin this weekend. But for now, let’s start by breaking down the Tuesday night play-in games and go from there.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ BROOKLYN NETS 7:00 PM EST (TNT)
Well we won’t have to wait very long to find out who the Celtics will face in the first round of the playoffs. That will be decided in the very first play-in game. But if you listen to the scuttlebutt around Boston and around the league, you’d think this game had already been played. It appears to be a foregone conclusion that the Nets will emerge victorious and head to Boston for a rematch of last year’s first round series which the Nets won 4 games to 1. Now why are people assuming this game is a formality for the Nets? Well, for one Las Vegas has set the expectation. The home team Nets are 8.5 point favorites at the time of this writing with -400 odds to win the game. Furthermore, the Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant, arguably the greatest basketball player alive. Durant has missed a ton of time this year and that’s a contributing factor to their lackluster record and 7th place finish in the standings. But don’t be fooled, the Nets were 36-19 with KD in the lineup, while stumbling to an 8-19 record without him. This is no ordinary 7 seed. Beyond that, the Nets of course have our old friend, former Celtic, Kyrie Irving. The hoopla around Irving is tiresome at best, but the bottom line is that he is healthy, he is now eligible to play in every game, he is (at least theoretically) very fresh, and he is a damn good offensive basketball player. With these two guys healthy, the Nets boast two of the most potent playoff scorers in the league. They have championship pedigree, and two guys who have made some of the biggest shots in the biggest moments in the history of the game. They are the reason - especially Durant - why despite the poor record and their appearance in the play-in tournament, the Nets still have the second best odds to win the East, and the third best odds to win the title of any team in the league according to Vegas. To put it mildly, the Brooklyn Nets are vastly overqualified to be in the play-in tournament. But alas, when Kevin Durant only plays 55 games, and Kyrie Irving only plays in 29 games, and James Harden gets traded after playing in only 44 games, and Joe Harris has season ending surgery after just 14 games, and on and on and on. It has been a hellish season for the Nets, but here we are. They need one win to secure a spot in the playoffs and then the records all get thrown out the window and it’s a brand new season. But first, they have to get there. So how can the Cavaliers possibly stack up? Well, it won’t be easy that’s for sure. And the Cavs will have to do it without one of their best players, all-star center, Jarrett Allen. Allen has been sidelined for over a month with a broken finger and it was recently announced that he will not be able to return for the play-in tournament; a devastating blow to the underdog Cavs. The Cavs were one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this year, largely thanks to the emergence of Allen along with third year guard, and Most Improved Player candidate, Darius Garland. They also got an unexpected boost from Rookie of the Year candidate, Evan Mobley, whose immediate contributions, especially on defense, have been impressive to say the least. Cleveland surged out of the gates, but sadly injuries have derailed their season for the most part and seen them slip all the way to the 8 seed. They’ll have their work cut out for them to keep up with this Nets team on Tuesday night. Garland is a dynamic offensive player, but the Cavs don’t have a lot of other great options for scoring. Their only other real creator is Caris LeVert, who hasn’t really gelled in the offense since being acquired via trade. Beyond that, the Cavs can look to veteran big man, and Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Kevin Love to provide some scoring punch. The only problem is that Love will get abused on defense, and sought out on switches repeatedly by Irving and Durant. In their last regular season meeting the Cavs didn’t even play Love a single minute during the 4th quarter for that exact reason. Still, Cleveland will likely need to exhaust any options for scoring because no matter how well they play on defense, they aren’t likely to hold the Nets offense down all night. The Cavaliers have been a great story all season, and have a very bright future. And while I think they will keep this game interesting and hang around for a while, they simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up for 48 minutes. The Nets can score in bunches and have the ability to turn a tie game into a double digit lead in the blink of an eye and the Cavs just don’t have a counter for that.
Prediction: I like the Nets to win this game going away. I don’t think their defense is good enough to pull away completely, but by the 4th quarter I just think their offense will be too much and they’ll pull away from Cleveland, ultimately winning by double digits.
CLIPPERS @ TIMBERWOLVES 9:30 PM EST (TNT)
In the second game of the night, we’ll see likely the most entertaining matchup of the play-in tournament. The Timberwolves have had their best season in years, under newly extended coach, Chris Finch. The Wolves have very quietly had the best offense in the league since January, and the fulcrum has been Karl-Anthony Towns, who has become perhaps the best big man shooter of all time. Towns is having his best season and has become one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, combining his inside and outside game masterfully. KAT can take bigger players to the perimeter and beat them off the dribble or shoot the lights out. If teams try to put a smaller player on KAT to combat his perimeter skills he will simply head to the block and live in the post. Beyond Towns, the Wolves have a nice pick and roll ball handler in D’Angelo Russell, who is having one of his best seasons and seems to have found a home. His two man game with KAT is very hard to stop when both guys are on, and they’ve proven to have some chops in the clutch. The Wolves also have a great complementary option in second year star, Anthony Edwards. Ant has had an up and down year, but he seems to be getting his groove back recently, and he provides a level of explosiveness and athleticism that few players in the entire league can counter. The biggest question mark for the Wolves all season has been the defense. None of their top three offensive players add much on defense, but they’ve found a way to make it work and have played well down the stretch on that end. The linchpins for the Wolves defense staying afloat have been Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt. Those two, along with the big three have created one of the more effective starting units in basketball, but the issue has been mixing rotations with bench units, and finding the right mix of offense and defense, which can be a difficult task with so few players who are a true net positive on both ends. I can’t wait to see how they choose to attack the Clippers, who boast one of the best and most diverse defenses in the league. Led by one of the most creative coaches in the league in Ty Lue, the Clips will throw all sorts of different defensive looks and schemes at the Wolves to try and slow them down. The Clippers came into the season with some of the highest expectations in the league, but have played the entire season without their superstar, Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is unlikely to return, even for a playoff series, but his sidekick, Paul George was able to return recently from his own injury. Since George has returned, the Clippers have looked like one of the better teams in the league, going 6-1 down the stretch with him in the lineup. Along with George, the Clips have a versatile combination of versatile two-way wing players including: Terrance Mann, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, and Nicolas Batum. Those guys, along with George, create all kinds of different looks and options to throw at opposing teams, with a group that can all hold their own inside and outside. Beyond that, the Clippers have a good creator in Reggie Jackson to run the offense and pressure the rim, post options in Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein, plus a knockdown shooter in Luke Kennard. The Clips have great depth and a variety of stylistic options. The most fascinating element of this game for me, is how the Clippers will attempt to slow Karl-Anthony Towns. I imagine Lue will throw the kitchen sink at Towns, constantly changing looks. I think Zubac will get a chance to battle Towns in the paint, I think smaller, but stronger guys like Batum, Morris, and even George and Covington may get a shot at him. I think they’ll try a little of everything, including double teams, fronting the post, and more. The goal will be to confuse Towns and throw him off his game. The Clippers may not have the conventional size to do it, but they do have the athleticism and versatility. On the other end, the Wolves will need to stay connected on defense, because the Clippers LOVE to spread the floor and fire from three at will. This game should be a great contrast of styles, and a classic chess match between two smart coaches.
Prediction: This game will come down to an elite offense vs an elite defense, and which strength will prevail, or which weakness will step up. The Wolves have home court, which should go a long way, as this is the biggest game for the franchise in years. At the same time, there is a thick layer of pressure on this team to make the actual playoffs. This is also our first real look at Karl-Anthony Towns as the premier player in a high leverage situation. I’m excited to see how the young Wolves will fare once the lights are shining bright. For that reason, I’m going with the experience of the Clippers and the proven track record of Ty Lue. I think this will be an exciting back and forth game with a little bit of everything. This is the play-in matchup that I am most excited for as a neutral observer. I like the Clippers to prevail and pull off the small upset in a close affair.
Full preview of the Wednesday Play-In games still to come.
Ben Handler