King Chuddy's First Round Playoff Preview
April 16, 2022
The play-in tournament is over and now the games get underway this afternoon. We’ve got a full four game slate Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be full steam ahead from there. Get ready for a couple of magic months of basketball and hopefully a long run for the Celtics. If you want a full breakdown of the Celtics/Nets series check out the podcast here, or watch the main blog page for a full breakdown to come. But for posterity, here are my predictions for every series of the playoffs:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Phoenix Suns vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have been a great story this year, and it was very encouraging to see them get through the play-in tournament, especially in that impressive comeback win against the Clippers. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum have figured out how to play together and become a dynamic 1-2 punch offensively, while Herb Jones can do it all on defense. But this squad is still a year or two away from real competition and they’re obviously missing the massive presence of Zion Williamson. The Suns on the other hand, are a true juggernaut. I don’t think people realize just how good they are, and I think they are about to steamroll through these Western conference playoffs. This team is fully healthy and should be very fresh. They’ve got strength at every position and depth off the bench. They have one of the best coaches in the league, and they are also fired up for redemption after losing in the finals last year. I don’t think there is much at all the Pelicans can do to make this a long series.
Suns in 4
#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #7 Minnesota Timberwolves
I’m happy for Minnesota and this franchise for the year they’ve had and what they have to build on going forward. Seeing how happy those players and fans were after winning the play-in game the other night was a pure joy. But much like the Pelicans, I think this team is a year or two away. They just don’t have enough versatility with too many guys who are a liability on one end of the court or the other. The Grizzlies have strong two-way personnel and depth to boot. They’ve got a lot of different options for what they can throw at the Wolves and how they can defend them. I think this will be a fun and exciting series to watch but I think the Grizzlies just have too much The Wolves will need their absolute best from all of their key players to make this a series and I’m not ready to bank on that consistently.
Grizzlies in 5
#3 Golden State Warriors vs. #6 Denver Nuggets
The only real question for me here is how long it will take the Warriors to start clicking together. Draymond Green and Stephen Curry are finally starting to look like themselves the past few weeks, but Stephen Curry hasn’t played in over a month. Those guys haven’t all played together in years. They have loads of chemistry together historically, but will it click again immediately in a playoff setting? Plus how will they manage up and comer, Jordan Poole and first time all-star, Andrew Wiggins? Somebody is going to come off the bench. Ultimately the Warriors are a better team and I trust them to figure this out pretty quickly. If the Nuggets had Jamal Murray this would be an incredible matchup, but alas they do not. I’m still not ruling out Jokic but I don’t think he can actually win this series by himself.
Warriors in 6
#4 Dallas Mavericks vs. #5 Utah Jazz
This was setup to be a great first round series and then Luka Doncic went down with a hamstring injury on the final day of the regular season which puts a major damper on things. The Mavericks have plenty of solid players, but Doncic is about as close as you’ll see to a truly heliocentric offense. He does it all for Dallas on the offensive end, and he’s the main reason they have been such a good team this year. There is no one player who can replace what Doncic does, so the Mavs will have to completely change their scheme and style on the fly. We’ll see a totally different team than what we are used to, with Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie likely getting the bulk of playmaking responsibilities. That’ll be a big ask against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. Utah is desperate for playoff success and the absence of Doncic gives them a massive boost. The Jazz offense should be too much and I don’t know if the Dallas role players can step up enough to keep games close. Hopefully Luka only misses a game or two and is able to come back, but I fear it may be too late if they fall into a hole.
Jazz in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Miami Heat vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks aren’t your typical 8 seed, as they’re coming off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance last season, and after a painfully slow start, finished the regular season on a 24-16 run, which was third best in the East over that span. The Hawks will also have the best player in the series, in Trae Young, who should be a handful for the Heat defense, who will likely always have at least one defender on the court that Young can abuse. But the health of their bigs, Clint Capela and John Collins are huge question marks at best, and Atlanta is going to need a lot more than just Young to win this series. The Heat are going to smother the rest of the Hawks with their defense, and Atlanta is going to have an extremely difficult time covering up all of the Heat shooters. On top of that, they don’t really have many great options to put on Jimmy Butler or even Kyle Lowry for that matter. Delon Wright and DeAndre Hunter will probably have to play a lot of minutes, and if they can’t provide offense that’s going to crush the Hawks. The Heat will have to work harder than they would probably like for a first round series, but I think they still prevail.
Heat in 6
#2 Celtics vs. #7 Nets
As I stated above, if you want my full breakdown and extended thoughts on this series, check out the blog or podcast. But to sum up my feelings, the Celtics are the better and deeper team on both ends here. They just need to make sure they don’t fall into the trap of matching Durant and Irving bucket for bucket. As long as the Celtics stick to their ball-moving, they will get open shot after open shot. They need to push the pace and really make the Nets work hard on both ends, which they should be able to do pretty easily. If that’s the case, the Celtics should be able to smother the Nets with energy and aggression and run them out of the gym. My biggest fear is that the Celtics fall back into some old habits under the bright lights, slowing the game down, and trying to go one on one for long stretches. Avoid that, and the Celtics should be just fine.
Celtics in 5
#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #6 Chicago Bulls
To me, this is by far the least intriguing series of the first round. The Bulls have badly fallen off in the second half of the season and have been playing some really uninspiring basketball. The Bucks on the other hand, have been ramping up, with a few statement wins down the stretch that showed they are ready to ramp things up for another long playoff run. This series should be a nice tune up for their title defense, but I don’t think they’ll have to work too hard. The Bulls don’t have the personnel to slow the Bucks down even in the slightest, and while DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic are all wonderful offensive players, they don’t exactly have much playoff success to point to. They may be able to get theirs, but nothing to truly make Giannis and the Bucks sweat.
Bucks in 4
#4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Last but not least, we have what I consider the most fascinating first round matchup. The Sixers had championship aspirations when they acquired James Harden to pair with their MVP-caliber center, Joel Embiid. But things haven’t exactly clicked so far, and Harden looks like a shell of his own former-MVP caliber. The Raptors meanwhile, really came on down the stretch, playing their best basketball int eh final few months of the season, and finishing as well as almost any team in the league. The Raptors have also played well against Philadelphia, winning 3 of the 4 meetings this year. They have an absurd amount of length and athleticism to throw at Embiid and they will constantly hound him with double and triple teams, forcing other players to make plays. The Sixers will desperately need Harden to find his old form or they are in trouble. On paper, this is a very even matchup, but I don’t really trust anyone on the Sixers to step up to playoff intensity and I think Nick Nurse vs. Doc Rivers is the biggest coaching mismatch of the first round. Losing their best perimeter defender in Matisse Thybulle for the games in Toronto due to his vaccination status is just the cherry on top, as I think the Raptors will be able to frustrate the Sixers and they will eventually break them.
Raptors in 6
Ben Handler