Celtics vs. Bucks Second Round Series Preview
April 29, 2022
It’s official; Celtics vs. Bucks. The Milwaukee Bucks closed out the Chicago Bulls in five games on Wednesday night to advance to the second round, where the Boston Celtics await. This will be the third playoff meeting between the teams over the past five years. In the 2018 playoffs, the Celtics were able to dispose of an up and coming Bucks squad in 7 games, but the following season the Bucks were up to the task, eliminating the Celtics in 5 games and ending the “Kyrie Irving Era” in Boston. This year, things will look similar, but also completely different. The Bucks have come a long way since the last meeting. They are the defending NBA champions, led by 2-time league MVP and defending Finals MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is now held in as high of esteem as any player in the league. The Celtics are also a different team. Jayson Tatum is now the clear cut leader and best player, coming off an MVP-caliber season and first round playoff series. This team comes in brimming with confidence after rolling through the second half of the regular season and then sweeping the Nets in round one. The fun will get underway this Sunday at 1 PM in TD Garden.
The Bucks were able to dispose of the Bulls fairly easily, but it wasn’t without casualties. Khris Middleton went down in game 2 with what has been classified as a grade 2 MCL sprain that will apparently sideline him for this entire second round series. Middleton is far and away the Bucks best player on the wing, and he’s their second most important player on offense after Giannis. Middleton has the ability to create a basket any time he wants and has the ability to save the Bucks offense when it bogs down - which can be a frequent occurrence. A lot of their best offensive actions involve Middleton, and he is one of their go-to guys in crunch time; generally the guy with the ball in his hands on the perimeter. If there is a big outside shot, Middleton is the guy they want taking it. All of that aside, we are talking about a three time all-star who averaged over 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists this season while adding solid defense. It’s a brutal loss for the Bucks to overcome.
The loss of Middleton will be especially felt in a matchup with the Celtics due to their stud wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Jays are obviously a tough matchup for any team, but without Middleton, the Bucks will be left with very few options, none of which seem too appealing. The Bucks have very solid post defense, with Brook Lopez playing drop, Bobby Portis switching, and Giannis flying around to clean up messes. They also have Jrue Holiday, who is one of the best guard defenders in the league. But on the wings, the Bucks are down to relying on a combination of Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews, and Grayson Allen. Those are all fine role players in their own right, but none of them have the size, speed, and athleticism to challenge either Tatum or Brown. The Celtics will likely target the weaker defenders and look to put any and all of those defenders into action with one or both of the Jays. On paper that is probably the biggest mismatch in this series, and the Celtics will look to take advantage.
One big difference between the Bucks and Nets is the interior presence. The Nets have very little size and their “bigs” were not very versatile. Boston was able to dominate the paint and physically overpower the Nets. That likely won’t be the case in this series as the Bucks boast an imposing frontcourt with Lopez, Giannis, and Portis. They’ll do their best to wall off the rim and eliminate the Celtics penetration and easy baskets inside. As a trade off for their paint presence, the Bucks tend to concede a lot of quality three point looks for their opponents. The Bulls were generating wide open three after wide open three, but they were unable to knock them down consistently and make the Bucks pay. That will be a key in this series, as the Celtics theoretically have the personnel to execute and exploit this opportunity. Milwaukee will force Tatum and Brown to give the ball up and there should be boundless open shots for guys like Grant Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and others. If the Celtics can exploit certain matchups, make the right decisions, and knock down their open looks, they should have a lot of success on offense in this series.
On the other end of the floor, the biggest key will be how the Celtics can matchup and attempt to contain Giannis. Al Horford has done a great job on him historically, and I would expect him to get the first crack in this series, but it will be a total team effort. The Celtics will likely focus on Giannis in a similar manner to how they approached defending Kevin Durant in round one. Although Al will start on Giannis, he’ll likely see a healthy dose of Grant Williams, some Rob Williams, and probably even Tatum and Brown at times. I’m sure Marcus Smart will even end up matched up on Giannis on occasion, and will do his best to draw offensive fouls. The Celts will try to wall off the basket and make Giannis work hard on every single possession. He’ll see a variety of coverages from different defenders, as well as double teams, blitzes, and more. Ime Udoka will try to keep Giannis on his toes and do everything to keep him from getting into a rhythm. It worked to perfection with Durant in round one, now we’ll see if they can have similar success against the reigning finals MVP.
If the Celtics can contain Giannis, it’s hard to imagine the Bucks finding enough offense to win this series without Middleton, especially with the way the Celtics have been playing defense. Smart should get the first crack at Jrue Holiday, who is a very solid point guard, but Smart, Brown, and the rest of the Celtics perimeter defenders should be able to keep him in check and limit his scoring. Beyond that, the Bucks really don’t have any players who should scare the Celtics. The aforementioned Matthews, Connaughton, and Allen can hit open shots, but if they are focal points, the Celtics will happily live with the results. Portis and Lopez have solid inside/outside games, but they are more dangerous on catch and shoot opportunities than anything else. Giannis and Holiday are really the only players on the Bucks who can consistently create offense to threaten the Celtics. Boston should be more than equipped to slow those two down and dare everyone else to beat them.
One other point of intrigue for me is how the Celtics will deploy Robert Williams in this series. Rob got his feet wet in the Nets series, but came off the bench and played limited minutes. All reports say everything went well and he’s feeling just about 100%, so I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be thrust back into the starting lineup. Even if Rob is still playing somewhat limited minutes, I think the best version of this team has Rob in the starting lineup. The sooner the Celtics get back to that, the better. Daniel Theis has performed admirably, and he should still have a role in this series, but the athleticism and versatility that Williams provides could be a game changer in this series.
The coaching matchup is also an interesting one to watch. Mike Budenholzer obviously coached the Bucks to a title last season, but there were plenty of questions along the way, and if KD’s foot hadn’t been on the line, Bud likely would have been fired. He has been historically stubborn about making adjustments when things aren’t working, and if that’s the case in this series the Bucks could dig themselves into a quick hole. But he is a good coach, and more than capable of figuring things out. On the Celtics side of things, Ime Udoka has faced every challenge thrown his way and come out of them looking like one of the best coaches in the league. This will be his biggest challenge to date, but I think he’s up to the task.
Overall, this will be a difficult and intense series for both sides. Much like with the first round, I think that the Celtics have the superior personnel and depth. If Boston is able to execute to their ability, keep up the defensive intensity we’ve gotten used to, and keep hitting open shots, there isn’t much the Bucks can do. There is always the threat of Giannis completely taking over the series, but otherwise, I can’t see many roads that lead to a Bucks victory. I’m picking the Celtics to win the series in five hardfought games. I think they have more talent, better depth, and better versatility. It’s hard to say if Udoka is a better coach than Budenholzer, but he definitely has more options and more buttons he can push. I’m sure Udoka has a long list of schemes to throw at Giannis and the Bucks, whereas if plan A doesn't work for Milwaukee, they may not have a great plan B.
Ben Handler