Breaking Down the Celtics Potential First Round Opponents
April 5, 2022
Though the Celtics only have three games left to play in the 2021-22 regular season, their seeding and first round opponent are still completely up in the air. Mathematically speaking, the Celts could still finish anywhere from #1-6 in the final Eastern Conference standings, which means they could potentially face any of the other nine potential East postseason teams given the right outcomes. But it seems increasingly likely that Boston will at least secure a top 4 seed, so for the sake of this column, I am going to assume that they finish as a top 4 seed, thus excluding them from facing Miami, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia in the first round. That still leaves six possible opponents for the Celtics, ranging from play-in teams to pseudo-contenders (and one that may be both…). Many fans are confused about what they should be rooting for around the league this week, and frankly it’s hard to say. But what we can do is at least start thinking about matchups and which ones would be more or less favorable. So I’ve gone ahead and broken down all of the possible first round matchups in order of most favorable to least for the Celtics. In other words, the first team on the list is who I would most like us to play, and the last team is the one I am most afraid of. Without further ado.
TIER 1: We should probably sweep them
1. CHARLOTTE HORNETS
This is one of the less likely possible opponents for the Celtics, but it is certainly still in play. The Hornets are currently tied with the Nets for 9th place. They could still creep up into the 7-8 matchup, but seem likely bound for the 9-10 play-in game. That would, of course, mean that Boston would need to secure the #1 seed to face the Hornets, but crazier things have happened. This would pretty much be a dream outcome for the Celtics, as the Hornets - while exciting - are a young, untested team that does not defend at a high level. They don’t pose much of a threat in a playoff series setting. LaMelo Ball has asserted himself as a star in this league, but the Celtics have plenty of length and athleticism to throw his way. The Hornets also have virtually no post presence at all, so Boston would be able to punish them down low, and the loss of Robert Williams would be mitigated (as much as possible). Charlotte has the offensive firepower to score with anyone and could make things interesting in a couple games - maybe even steal one at home. But ultimately, this should be pretty light work for the Celtics defense, and there is simply no way the Hornets can slow down the Celtics on the other end. I’d pick the Celtics to win this series quite comfortably, in four or five games.
2. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
A few months ago this may have seemed like a team to avoid, but things have unraveled over the stretch run for the Cavs and they’ve started to look vulnerable. A lot of that is due to injuries that have piled up, and finally become too much. It started with losing Collin Sexton right as the season started. Then it was Ricky Rubio. Then Jarrett Allen. Then Evan Mobley. It’s been a shame to see for a team that was such a fun story in the first half of the season. At full strength, this would be an interesting squad, but much like Charlotte they are completely untested. If they have their full complement of players, they boast one of the bigger, more imposing front lines in the game with Allen and Mobley down low. Still, even without Rob Williams, it’s hard to fear a team that plays through the post that much. Allen is good, but he’s not a dominant offensive player that can win a series. On the outside, while Cleveland has a promising young star in Darius Garland, they don’t have much beyond that. Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro as secondary options aren’t really scaring anyone. Boston should really be able to limit the Cavs offense and there is really no one who can guard either of the Jays competently. No matter how this season ends, it will have been a very promising one for the Cavaliers, but this would likely end in four games or a gentleman's sweep for the Celtics.
TIER 2: This series will probably be extremely annoying, but we should be fine
3. TORONTO RAPTORS
The Raptors have been a thorn in teams’ sides for the past few years thanks to great coaching and relentless combination of length and athleticism. Unlike the first two teams on this list they are plenty battle tested - especially their coach and two best players, Pascal Siakam and Fred Van Vleet. Nick Nurse would completely try to muck this series up with all sorts of zone defenses and creative schemes, but in the end the talent gap should be too much to overcome. Siakam has struggled when hounded by better defenders over the years, and Jaylen Brown has had his number. The Jays should be able to make Siakam work, while Smart and our longer wings can make life difficult for Van Vleet. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby are good young players, but I don’t trust either one to step up as a primary scorer in a playoff series if Pascal or FVV are struggling. The Raptors also lack a meaningful post presence (their best lineup is probably with Siakam/Barnes/OG in the frontcourt) so this is another series where the C’s wouldn't miss the Timelord too much and Horford should be able to do work in the post. The Raptors also don’t have a lot of shooting to hurt the Celtics, as we saw in their most recent matchup. The Celtics were content to simply pack the paint against Siakam and dare anyone but FVV and Gary Trent Jr. to make threes. The Celtics should be able to pretty much suffocate the Toronto offense, and barring a Raptor getting hot and going crazy, it’s hard to imagine how they score enough to keep up with Boston over the course of a series. Sure, they would make the Celts work on offense, but the way Boston has been going lately, I trust they would be able to solve the Raptors and their lack of rim protection. As for anyone who is concerned about vaccination statuses for Celtics traveling to Toronto, the players and coach have all stated that they would all be ready to play anywhere. Local media seems to think that Jaylen is unvaxxed because he hasn’t confirmed that he is. But when asked recently, Brown stated that he is excited to play in the playoffs against any opponent, and that since he is a vice president of the players union, part of his job is to protect the privacy of the players. So he said that he will not comment on his (or anyone else’s) vaccination status. But again, he said he is excited to play anywhere. Udoka has also said recently that everyone would be available for a playoff series in Toronto. I’m not sure what more we need to hear. But even in the unlikely (in my opinion) event that the Celtics were without Brown in games played in Toronto, the Celtics should have little problem advancing.
4. ATLANTA HAWKS
Over the course of the regular season, the Hawks were objectively one of the most disappointing and underwhelming teams in the league. But they are coming off an impressive run to the Eastern Conference finals last season, and they’ve been coming on strong down the stretch. So there’s no doubting how dangerous this team can be when playing at their best. Everybody knows about Trae Young. Young has been sensational this season, willing the Hawks to wins with his offensive mastery. The Celtics have some of the best possible defenders in the league to throw at Young, but his combination of quickness, vision, ball-handling, and shooting is extremely tough for any one player to contain. The Celtics would likely resort to some form of blitzing Young, forcing him to give the ball up early, and basically forcing anyone else on the Hawks to punish the defense consistently. The Hawks have several players who can do this with shotmaking, like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari. Those guys can get hot, but the Celtics should have the individual defenders to shut any of those guys down if necessary. They are good supplementary pieces, but if you can cut off the head of the snake (Young), they become a pretty average offense. The other thing that would make the Hawks feisty is their size in the post. Clint Capela has been starting to look like his old self, and at his best he can be almost dominant as a rim protector on defense and a finisher on offense. Onyeka Okongwo has also come on strong as a reliable bench player and John Collins is likely to come back soon. That would be a lot for the Celtics to handle down low, and the loss of Rob Williams would be felt, but none of those guys really scare me in terms of creating their own offense. The Celtics would need to be extremely focused on taking away rollers on the pick and roll and eliminating offensive rebounds, but the Celts have proven willing to get physical and mix it up down low, so I’m not overly concerned. But the real reason I’m not that worried about a potential Hawks matchup is their defense - or lack thereof. Atlanta has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and most of that stems from their best player. Trae Young is one of the worst defenders in the league and would be a constant liability trying to guard anyone on the Celtics. Any good team in a playoff series is going to attack Young relentlessly, targeting him in every action, and forcing Atlanta to send help. The Hawks would be constantly in rotation, which would create advantageous matchups for the Celtics over and over again. Atlanta just doesn’t have enough quality defenders to cover for that. They’d already be hard pressed to match up with the Jays (I think DeAndre Hunter could do ooooookay maybe), but throw in the limitations of Young, and I just don’t see how they can stay with Boston. The Hawks have proven their chops last year, and Trae Young is a formidable foe, but if the Celtics are locked in on defense they should be able to run this team out of the gym.
5. CHICAGO BULLS
For the first few months of the season the Bulls had the look of a true contender, but a lot of air has come out of that balloon recently. The biggest question coming into the season for this team was whether or not they would be good enough on defense. The early results were incredibly promising, but as the year has gone on, and players have been lost to injury, the defense has cratered and they now sit at 20th in the league for the season. They’ve seen Alex Caruso and Pat Williams come back recently, which helps, but they’re still lacking an imposing defensive presence (sorry Vooch :/) and it sounds like Lonzo Ball isn’t close to returning. Ball was a key ball mover on offense, but more importantly he had been perhaps the best defender on the team. Without the defensive consistency, the Bulls are relying on their offense to carry them past teams. The main reason I have the Bulls so high (or low depending on how you look at it) on this list is because they actually do have the firepower and offensive diversity to scare teams and make for an interesting series. For starters, they have two of the purest wing scorers in the league in DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. DeRozan has fallen off a bit from his early season MVP-level play, but he is still likely headed for an All-NBA selection and Lavine will be in the conversation as well. Both guys have a pretty complete three level game, and provide the kind of one-on-one chops that can carry an offense in the playoffs. If Lavine and DeRozan both get hot there isn’t much a defense can do, and these guys are as good at creating their own offense and making contested shots as just about anyone in the league. Throw in a post scorer with floor spacing ability like Nikola Vucevic and it’s easy to see why the Bulls could prove to be an uncomfortable matchup for any team. But on the other hand, DeRozan has proven to shrink in the biggest moments and his playoff resume is not at all strong. Lavine and Vucevic have also never exactly proven themselves in the playoffs so there is no reason to believe these guys will suddenly step up and have their best postseasons. Throw in their lack of defending, and if these guys slip at all on offense from their regular season output (which seems pretty likely), I’m not really sure what they do. If everything breaks right for the Bulls I could see them making this a long series, but I’m relying on enough historical data and the way things have been trending for the last month or so to assume that the Celtics would be able to take care of business here without too much trouble.
TIER 3: Oh shit…
6. BROOKLYN NETS
This of course brings us to the team that everybody is talking about. The team that everybody is trying to avoid - despite not even knowing if they will make the playoffs! The Nets are a total enigma. They currently have the second best odds to win the East at +320 (behind only Milwaukee), despite only having -265 odds to actually make the playoffs. They are currently 40-38 on the season, sitting in a tie for 9th place in the east. They will need to win at least one play-in game just to make the playoffs, and very possibly two. The Nets defense has been one of the ten worst in the league this season and it doesn’t appear that Ben Simmons is showing up to help out on that end any time soon. They are relying on a combination of mostly washed up vets like Andre Drummond (in all fairness he has been solid since the trade to BK but I still don’t trust him at all in a playoff series), LaMarcus Aldridge, James Johnson, and Patty Mills (he has looked completely out of gas for about a month now). Steve Nash also hasn’t exactly proven to be the most creative coach, and I haven’t been inspired by their offense at all this year without Mike D’Antoni. Even Kyrie Irving - who was looking incredible in a part time role - has been unimpressive down the stretch. Since he came back as a full time player his efficiency has fallen off a cliff and he doesn’t look like the same guy, who seemed determined to come out and remind the league of his brilliance on the rare occasions he was “allowed” to play. Apparently it’s easier to succeed in the NBA when you are only playing once a week or so. And yet, despite all of that, this team still has Kevin Durant and you’re lying to yourself if that’s not enough to scare you. Durant missed a chunk of time this season, but has still proven that he is right there in the discussion with only Giannis for best player alive. Nobody wants to face Durant in the playoffs if they don’t have to, and you know he is not going out without a fight. The Celtics have some good options to throw at Durant, but this guy is truly unstoppable. Putting shooters like Irving, Seth Curry, and Patty Mills - if he can remember how to shoot - is a horrifying proposition, and if this team can find their form we know what they are capable of. There is a reason that they still have those odds to win the east. A first round series with the Nets would be brutal, and on another level of challenging compared to the other five potential opponents. Those are all teams that would likely be happy just to win a series or even take the Celtics to 6 or 7 games, whereas the Nets have legitimate championship aspirations and expectations. No matter how you feel about the Celtics and their chances, there should be no debate as to the team you’d least like to face in round one, and that team is the Brooklyn Nets. Now having said all of that, I’m not saying the Celtics should fear the Nets, or be trying to avoid them. It’s the least desirable matchup by far, but still a series I think the Celtics should be able to win. The Nets have been playing meaningful games for a few weeks now and doing everything they can to escape the play-in tournament, and frankly it hasn’t mattered. This is as close to full strength as they will likely get, and they are struggling to beat lesser opponents. For this team to reach their lofty expectations, Kevin Durant is going to have to provide a herculean effort and his teammates will have to follow suit. I’m not going to doubt KD, and he is certainly capable of leading them past anyone. But at this point I am no longer expecting it. If we get the Nets, we get the Nets. Bring on the playoffs!
Ben Handler